Our 2026 Philanthropy Forecast

- Fewer Donors, Bigger Gifts, Higher Stakes

Fundraisers in the UK and Ireland are entering 2026 facing tightening donor markets, fragile household finances, and more concentrated philanthropic income. But the data does not only point to challenge. It also points clearly to where organisations can win—and which strategies will allow fundraising teams to grow income, increase resilience, and deepen donor commitment in a changing landscape.

If 2020–2025 was a period defined by disruption, 2026 is the first clear opportunity to recalibrate. The signals across the market are consistent: donor behaviour is becoming more selective, gifts are becoming larger, and philanthropic capital continues to grow among wealthy cohorts. For organisations willing to align strategy with these trends, 2026 offers a rare window to strengthen pipelines, reposition propositions, and build long-term stability.

Four macro themes matter:

• Modest economic growth—but donors who continue to give are giving more.

• Shrinking participation—but stable or rising income from high-value supporters.

• Rising importance of major gifts and trusts—creating space for disciplined, strategic fundraising.

• Tighter government and aid budgets—but growing need and public legitimacy for charitable solutions.

  
  

1. The 2026 economic backdrop

- weak growth, stretched donors — but clear fundraising opportunities

In the UK, OECD forecasts around 1.2% GDP growth, with donors still feeling the squeeze from fiscal drag. CAF data shows only 50% of people donated last year, the lowest on record, and participation among 16–24-year-olds has dropped to 36%.

These trends appear negative on the surface—but they also highlight where the opportunities lie:

• The donors who remain active are more committed, more consistent, and are giving at higher values.

• The average donation value has risen, showing a willingness to stretch for causes that feel essential, urgent, or meaningful.

  
  

Across Ireland, a mixed policy environment is paired with stable volunteering levels and high generosity (67% giving money)—a strong foundation for organisations able to articulate trust, transparency and local impact.

Opportunity in 2026

• Economic anxiety demands sharper, more values-driven cases for support.

• Evidence shows donors respond to clarity, purpose and tangible impact during periods of uncertainty.

• Organisations able to link their mission to “necessity over optionality” will grow donor value even if participation lags.

  
  

2. Donor behaviour: fewer donors, bigger gifts

— and a chance to build stronger pipelines

CAF data shows:

• Four million fewer UK donors than in 2019

• Volunteer numbers down by 1.5 million, to just 10% participation

• Yet an estimated £15.4 billion donated, and the average monthly donation rising to £72—the first rise in eight years

  
  

This means, the donor pool is smaller, but deeper. Behaviour is changing, not disappearing.

Opportunity in 2026

• Organisations can strengthen mid-level and major donor pipelines faster than in periods where attention is split across broad, low-yield mass markets.

• Younger donors, while currently disengaged, present a blank slate for new forms of digital stewardship, community-giving and experience-led engagement.

• With fewer organisations competing well at the higher-value end, those who invest now can secure multi-year gains.

  
  

3. CASE Evidence: Transformational gifts are growing

- and 2026 is the moment to professionalise

CASE Insights data shows:

• £1.52 billion in new funds, the strongest total ever

• The median institution down 12.3%, proving top gifts are driving success

• Three largest gifts = 41.8% of total income

• Donor numbers down 5.1%

Globally, the Altrata Billionaire Census 2025 shows:

• 3,508 billionaires, up 5.6%

• Total wealth $13.4 trillion

• 26 individuals now hold 21% of all billionaire wealth

This is not a crisis—it is a signal. It shows where growth is coming from and where fundraisers should focus.

Opportunity in 2026

• Organisations that build systems for major gifts, transformational philanthropy, and philanthropic partnerships will outperform their peers.

• Leadership teams willing to articulate bold, investable visions can unlock gifts that redefine organisational trajectory.

• Concentration risk, when managed deliberately, becomes concentration opportunity: the ability to deepen and professionalise relationships with fewer, more aligned partners.

  
  

4. Government shifts: Less Aid, more scrutiny

- and a stronger case for philanthropy

Yes, ODA cuts and regulatory tightening pose challenges. But they also:

• Strengthen the legitimacy of charitable and philanthropic solutions, especially in international development

• Increase donor appetite for funding gaps, step-in philanthropy, and matched initiatives

• Reward organisations that can demonstrate rigorous governance, transparency and accountability

  
  

Opportunity in 2026

• Create propositions that explain exactly what philanthropy can secure that government funding no longer can.

• Position your organisation as a credible, well-governed partner in an era of public trust volatility.

• Use regulatory clarity to build donor confidence, not avoid complexity.

Practical steps for Fundraisers preparing for 2026

1.    Build real scenarios—not optimistic budgets

Use modelling to identify where opportunity—not just risk—sits across segments.

2.    Treat donor concentration as a lever, not just a liability

Make intentional investment in refreshed major donor journeys.

3.    Professionalise major & transformational giving

2026 is the moment to shift from ad hoc cultivation to structured philanthropic partnership building.

4.    Strengthen global fundraising infrastructure

Cross-border philanthropy remains one of the largest untapped growth opportunities for UK and Irish charities.

5.    Invest in insight—not just channels

Data-driven segmentation is the foundation of higher return on donor engagement.

6.    Equip your teams

High-performing fundraisers thrive in clarity, capability, and confidence.

7.    Engage your Board with the right questions

Boards that understand concentration risk and transformational opportunity will invest accordingly.

By Harvey Duthie, CEO, Belmont Fundraising Ltd.

Dublin, 12 December 2025